Climate change made European heatwave up to 4C hotter study

Study findings

A rapid study conducted by over a dozen researchers from five European institutions concluded that the heatwaves likely resulted in far more heat-related deaths than would have occurred without global warming. The heatwave, which occurred between late June and early July, saw temperatures soaring well above 40°C (104°F) in several countries, breaking records and triggering health warnings.

Historical comparisons

To assess the impact of climate change, scientists compared the intensity of the heatwave to a world unaffected by fossil fuel emissions. They found that the heatwave "would have been 2-4°C cooler" in all but one of the 12 cities studied, which collectively house over 30 million people, including major capitals like Paris, London, and Madrid.

Increased risks

Researcher Ben Clarke from Imperial College London highlighted that the added heat brings certain populations into more dangerous conditions. While some may find the temperatures comfortable, many others face significant health risks.

Estimated death toll

For the first time, the study aimed to estimate the death toll from this heatwave. Based on established research methods, it concluded that approximately 2,300 deaths occurred between June 23 and July 2 across the 12 cities. Alarmingly, about 1,500 of these deaths—roughly two-thirds—would not have happened without climate change.

Vulnerable populations

Heatwaves pose particular dangers to the elderly, sick individuals, young children, outdoor workers, and anyone exposed to high temperatures for extended periods. Urban areas exacerbate these risks, as paved surfaces and buildings absorb heat, making cities significantly hotter.

The silent killer

During the heatwave, large parts of southern Europe experienced "tropical nights," where overnight temperatures remained too high for adequate recovery. Garyfallos Konstantinoudis from Imperial College London noted that even a 2-4°C increase in heatwave temperatures can significantly impact survival rates.

Authorities warn that it could take weeks to finalize the death toll from this recent heatwave, though similar events in the past have claimed tens of thousands of lives in Europe.