Study: Climate change made Hurricane Melissa four times likelier

The study, conducted by scientists at Imperial College London, found that global warming — driven primarily by the burning of fossil fuels — increased both the probability and intensity of the devastating Category 5 hurricane.

Limits of preparation and adaptation

“Jamaica had plenty of time and experience to prepare for this storm, but there are limits to how countries can prepare and adapt,” said Ralf Toumi, Director of Imperial College’s Grantham Institute, which authored the paper.

“Adaptation to climate change is vital,” Toumi added, “but it is not a sufficient response to global warming. The emission of greenhouse gases also has to stop.”

Statistical findings: Once every 1,700 years

Using a peer-reviewed climate model that simulates millions of hypothetical storm paths under varying environmental conditions, researchers determined that in a cooler, pre-industrial world, a Melissa-type hurricane would strike Jamaica roughly once every 8,100 years.

However, with current levels of warming, the frequency has increased to once every 1,700 years.

A planet nearing dangerous warming thresholds

The Earth has already warmed by approximately 1.3°C (2.3°F) above pre-industrial levels — alarmingly close to the 1.5°C threshold scientists warn must not be crossed to prevent the most severe consequences of climate instability.

Even if such an extreme hurricane had occurred in a cooler climate, it would have been slightly weaker, the study found. The present warming of 1.3°C has increased wind speeds by 19 kilometres (12 miles) per hour, equivalent to a seven per cent rise. In a 2°C warmer world, those winds could reach an additional 26 kph.

Hurricane Melissa’s destructive force

Melissa battered Jamaica with up to 76 centimetres (30 inches) of rain and sustained winds reaching 295 kph (185 mph).

“Man-made climate change clearly made Hurricane Melissa stronger and more destructive,” Toumi said. “These storms will become even more devastating if we continue overheating the planet by burning fossil fuels.”

However, the analysis noted that the destruction was already so severe that even more intense conditions might not have resulted in proportionally greater visible damage.

Data gaps and economic toll

The researchers were unable to assess climate change’s impact on rainfall, as the US government shutdown prevented access to critical satellite data.

Preliminary estimates by Enki Research put direct infrastructure damage at approximately $7.7 billion, or around 40 per cent of Jamaica’s GDP. The organisation projected that recovery will take at least a decade.

This estimate excludes wider economic losses — including those from tourism, shipping operations, and commercial supply chains — which could add several billion dollars more to the total impact.