Vietnam scraps two-child limit as birth rate declines

Historical context

The two-child policy was implemented in 1988, but now the size of a family will be determined by each individual couple, according to the Vietnam News Agency. Over the last three years, Vietnam has experienced historically low birth rates, with the total fertility rate dropping to 1.91 children per woman in 2024, which is below the replacement level.

Declining birth rates

Birth rates have steadily decreased from 2.11 children per woman in 2021 to 2.01 in 2022, and further to 1.96 in 2023. This downward trend is particularly evident in urbanized and economically developed areas, notably in major cities like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, where the rising cost of living has made raising children increasingly challenging.

Changing perspectives on family planning

Tran Minh Huong, a 22-year-old office worker, expressed her indifference toward the government’s regulation, stating that she has no plans to have children. "Even though I am an Asian, with social norms that say women need to get married and have kids, it's too costly to raise a child," she remarked.

Challenges to population growth

Deputy Health Minister Nguyen Thi Lien Huong highlighted the growing difficulty of encouraging families to have more children, despite policy adjustments and public campaigns. She noted that the declining birth rate poses threats to long-term socio-economic development, including issues related to an ageing population and workforce shortages. Huong urged a shift in societal mindset from merely focusing on family planning to a broader understanding of population and development.

Addressing sex imbalance

Vietnam is also facing challenges related to sex imbalances due to a historic preference for boys. Recently, the Ministry of Health proposed tripling the current fine for fetal gender selection to $3,800, as reported by state media. It remains illegal to inform parents of the sex of their baby before birth or to perform abortions for sex-selection reasons, with penalties imposed on clinics that violate the law. The sex ratio at birth, while improving, continues to be skewed, currently at 112 boys for every 100 girls.

Public sentiment

Hoang Thi Oanh, a 45-year-old mother of three, shared her experience under the two-child policy, noting that she received fewer benefits after the birth of her youngest child. "It's good that at last the authorities removed this ban," she stated, but added, "raising more than two kids nowadays is too hard and costly." She believes that only financially stable couples would consider having more than two children, suggesting that the authorities may need to offer incentives to encourage larger families.

Regional comparisons

Vietnam's neighbor, China, ended its own strict "one-child policy" in 2016 and allowed couples to have three children beginning in 2021. However, similar to Vietnam, the soaring cost of living in China has negatively impacted birth rates, leading to a demographic decline, with its population falling for the third consecutive year in 2024.