Nationalist Nawrocki wins Polish presidential election

The 42-year-old Nawrocki, an admirer of former US President Donald Trump, garnered 50.89% of the votes in Sunday’s runoff. His opponent, Rafal Trzaskowski, the pro-EU mayor of Warsaw, received 49.11% in a highly polarized environment.

Outgoing conservative President Andrzej Duda congratulated Nawrocki and thanked Poles for their civic engagement, noting a voter turnout of 71.63%.

A Divided nation

The election results followed a tense night, with both candidates initially claiming victory based on an exit poll indicating a close race. Nawrocki addressed his supporters, asserting, "We will win and we will save Poland."

Nawrocki's victory threatens to derail the government's progressive agenda on issues such as abortion and LGBTQ rights. It may also revive tensions with Brussels over rule of law concerns.

Foreign relations and immigration

Nawrocki's stance could strain relations with Ukraine, as he is critical of Kyiv's EU and NATO accession ambitions and supports reducing benefits for Ukrainian refugees. During his campaign, he visited the White House, where Trump told him, "You will win."

US Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem endorsed Nawrocki, stating, "He needs to be the next president."

The influence of Catholic values

Polish presidents hold substantial sway over foreign and defense policy and possess veto power over legislation. Nawrocki's supporters advocate for stricter immigration controls and conservative social values, emphasizing the importance of Catholic beliefs.

Warsaw pensioner Lila Chojecka expressed her support, saying, "Catholic values are important to me. I know he shares them."

In contrast, Trzaskowski's supporters favor deeper EU integration and social reforms, such as civil partnerships for same-sex couples and easing abortion restrictions.

Controversies surrounding the campaign

Nawrocki's victory may empower the populist Law and Justice (PiS) party, which governed Poland from 2015 to 2023. Some analysts warn that continued political deadlock could prompt fresh parliamentary elections.

His campaign faced scrutiny due to controversies over an apartment purchase and allegations regarding his past as a football hooligan. He also denied claims of procuring sex workers during his previous job as a security guard.

Nawrocki's opposition to Ukraine's NATO membership has drawn criticism, particularly after he laid flowers at a monument for Poles killed by Ukrainian nationalists during World War II, calling it “a genocide against the Polish people.”

Poland's role in international affairs

As an EU and NATO member, Poland plays a crucial role in international diplomacy, particularly concerning Ukraine. With a rapidly growing economy and a population of 38 million, Poland remains a key supply route for Western arms and aid directed toward Ukraine.